2015 Schedule is out and I am worried

Yesterday, OSU released their 2015 schedule and while it showcases some hopefully great games, it also unearthed some worries I have about next year.

First of all, I will go on record as saying I will be happy to win six games next year.  As a perpetually Orange Colored Glasses wearing optimist, I am facing a reality that next year will see the departure of the following people:

    • Sean Mannion
    • Dylan Wynn
    • Connor Hamlett
    • Ryan Murphy
    • Tyrequek Zimmerman
    • Steven Nelson
    • Michael Doctor
    • DJ Alexander
    • Jabral Johnson
    • ‘Bud’ Delva
    • Siale Hautau
    • Obum Gwatcham
    • Roman Sapolu
    • Terron Ward
    • Keith Kostol
    • Tyler Anderson

Also, if he can play and do well, there is always the threat that a guy like Isaac Seumalo might forgo his senior year.

That is a huge list of key contributors and future NFL players to replace. We thought replacing Cooks, Crichton and Reynolds was tough this year, that list is daunting.

Now you couple this with games at Michigan, at Arizona, at Autzen, at Utah and home games against UCLA, Stanford and Washington and you have a season that makes me concerned about a drop off. I am worried when OSU starts a new QB and I am nervous when they start a mostly new secondary and linebackers. Luckily, a lot of players will have played the last two years on defense so there is not going to be a dearth of inexperience.  Scott, Hunt and Strong will all have played a lot.  Mageo, Songy, Haley and Saulo will all have played some.  The defensive line will also return a lot of guys with meaningful minutes.

On offense OSU will return the vast majority of their line, as well as all their receivers. They also will return Smith, Woods, Brown, Haskins and all their QB’s they can choose from will have been in the program more than a year.  As we saw with Cody Vaz, the right guy can do well right off the bat.

So there are a ton of questions next year that need to be addressed, and the schedule is not super helpful.  A few things that do give me hope are the following:

  • UW, Arizona and UO will be replacing most of their offensive lines next year.
  • Michigan, the ducks, Stanford, UCLA, WSU and Utah will be breaking in new QB’s
  • The ducks, UCLA, Utah and Stanford lose significant numbers on their defenses
  • The huskies lose six of their front seven next year if Shaq Thompson declares for the draft.

There is a ton of fluctuation in the conference after this year, especially with players that may declare early and so on.  I will not miss Montgomery at Stanford nor will I miss Shaq Thompson should he choose to leave early.

So while i am nervous, there is a lot that could go right for the Beavers.  I will be shocked if they win 9+ games and I would be shocked if they won 3 or fewer.  Anything in between would not surprise me that  much. There is still a ton left of this season, and the best Beaver football has yet to be seen for certain.  This year could be special, and I hope it is, because next year is going to have some serious challenges.

3 thoughts on “2015 Schedule is out and I am worried

  1. blowcheese

    well Peter you have been setting yourself up for this, i hate to say it. Each time you have said we are tired of Mike Riley (in the sense we are not excited about the stable aspects of the program that in the senior laden years makes the beavs a dangerous darkhorse in the conference.

    Maybe, just maybe the rebuilding years is really where the tiredness sets in. Because it certainly does look like next year is maybe 4 wins. That’s not exciting.

    Reply
    1. Peter Riley Osborne Post author

      Hey, I stand by everything I have said. If OSU does really well this year that goes to show you the difference in recruiting versus the years of 2009-2011. 2009 was a good year, but there were a lot of guys on that team that wouldn’t start on this team. When you have a great group like we had in 2011 and 2012, the are going to play longer and, with experience, probably better than in past year. Look at how many freshmen started in 2011. That is just the way it goes, just like all the other teams that are replacing their offensive lines and their secondaries and their quarterbacks in the conference.

      It looks like conference wide there will be some rebuilding years. If we can have a 2007 like year next year, a year we also replaced so much on offense, or even 2009, a year we replaced a lot everywhere, then I will be thrilled. We just don’t have a lot of experience coming back next year, especially at QB, and a super tough schedule, so those two don’t make me super excited. The good thing is, we will have the same core of players for the next two years at least. So if they can come out of next year with a bowl game, then I think the next two years look pretty bright.

      Unlike 2009, the guys that are behind the starters are not short in talent, just experience, so who knows. I just am worried. Just like 2010. Good team, rough schedule.

      Reply
      1. blowcheese

        Yeah there is always definitely a brightside when you look at the young talent. But the dark side is that Riley is way loyal to a senior who is not as good as sophomore so after the senior heavy year we have talented inexperience all over. Which isn’t all bad i guess.

        Let’s face it- the first year qbs almost never do super well in Riley’s system and that is probably not going to change. Mannion did better than most his first year but still threw a ton of killjoy interceptions.

        Reply

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